PROJECT CONTROL & RISK

PROJECT CONTROL & RISK Purpose of Control Control Process Cost/Schedule/Technical Control Introduction to Earned Value Project ...

PROJECT CONTROL & RISK

  • Purpose of Control Control Process

  • Cost/Schedule/Technical Control

  • Introduction to Earned Value

  • Project Changes and Change Control

  • Importance of Managing Risk

Purpose of Control
To make the actual meet the plan

The Process

  1. Key performance areas

  2. Set standards

  3. Measure performance

  4. Compare

  5. Fix

A Question of Balance

  • Too little control?

  • Too much control?

















What Forms do these “Standards” Take?

  • Cost

  • Schedule

  • Performance

A Control Example
You’re two months into a three month project.  You’ve spent 90% of your budget.
Defend yourself.

Three Important Terms

  • BCWS:  The plan, integrating schedule and budget

  • BCWP:  What you planned to spend for work actually done

  • ACWP:  Actual dollars spent at a point in time, for the work actually done

More Terms

  • BAC:  Original budget at completion

  • TAC:  Original time at completion

  • ECAC:  Estimated cost at completion

  • ETAC:  Estimated time at completion

Four Relationships
Cost Variance = BCWP - ACWP
Schedule Variance = BCWP - BCWS
ECAC =  ACWP  X  BAC
BCWP
ETAC =  BCWS  X  TAC
BCWP
Changes and Change Control

  • The last step of the control process:  FIX


  • Two Types:  Business and Technical Changes

Business Changes (aka CCPs)

  • Business related

  • Driven by such things as:

  • Spec relief

  • Deliverables changes

  • Funding shifts

  • Schedule changes

  • Acts of God

  • Subcontractor changes

Technical Changes (aka ECPs)
Technological issues, such as:

  • New technologies

  • Laws of physics

  • Competitor response

  • Threat changes

  • Changes in user requirements (real or political)

Change Control

  • Changes cost $, usually big $

  • So they need control

  • PM responsibility

  • Signed baselines

  • High levels of authority

  • Some tools:

  • Zero sum/DTC/caps

PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT

  • Risk defined

  • A brief history

  • Types of project risk

  • The PMBOK sequence

  • Tools

RISK DEFINED
The likelihood (probability) and the impact of an undesirable event “Fear of harm ought to be proportional not only to the gravity of the harm, but also to the probability of the event.”  (Antoine  Arnauld, 1665)

  • Both matter

  • Examples

A BRIEF HISTORY

  • The management of risk forms the boundary between the old world and modern times

  • Old world

  • Fates and gods

  • Short time horizons

  • Man’s role:  accept, maybe react

SO WHAT CHANGED?

  • Rise of rational man

  • Man can plan and influence the future

  • Development of math, probability, forecasting

  • Multiply XII times VIII

  • Rise of zero and Arabic numerals

  • Rise of trade, business, shipping

  • Longer time horizons

  • Large commercial ventures mean more at stake



THE CRITICAL QUESTIONS
To what extent does the past foretell the future?
Can we extrapolate from the past to predict a future event? “Nature has established patterns originating in the return of events, but only for the most part.”  (von Leibnitz to Bernoulli, who then developed the
Law of Large Numbers, 1703)

TYPES OF PROJECT RISK















THE PMBOK RISK MANAGEMENT SEQUENCE

  • Risk identification

  • Risk quantification

  • Risk response development

  • Risk response control

TOOLS FOR RISK MANAGEMENT (more or less in order)

  • Expert opinion

  • Simulation

  • Historical Analysis/ “Lessons Learned”

  • “Risk Reduction”

  • Contracting/Procurement Strategy

  • CPFF, FFP, “Make or Buy,” Sole Source, etc.

  • Insurance, bonding

  • Multiple paths

  • Management attention (e.g., “Top 10” Lists)

  • Workarounds

COMMENTS

Name

• compression couplers,1,• tension couplers,1,1997 UBC,1,56 days Concrete test,1,ADDICRETE,1,additives,1,administer computer networks,1,admixtures,1,Advises Subcontractors,1,alignment of the shafts,1,Allowable Stress Design,1,Anchor Bolts,1,Annual depreciation expense,1,approval of drawings,1,ASD,1,Assist in Quantity,1,Assist the Project Manager,1,Authority to Delegate,1,AutoCAD,2,AutoCAD to Etabs,1,bars,1,bars in a bundle,1,BASE ISOLATED DAMAGE,1,base plates,1,basement wall,1,Basic soil properties,1,basic wind speed,1,Beams Inspection Checklist,1,Bearing capacity,1,bell pile bottom,1,bent bars,1,Bitomeneous,1,Bowels,1,breaching spillway,1,BS 8007:1987,1,BS5400,1,BS6399,1,BS8007,1,BS8110-1997,1,buildings height,1,CALCULATION OF CRACK WIDTH,1,Canary Island Dates,1,cantilever footing,1,Carbon Equivalent,1,carbon test,1,cast in-situ,1,cast-in-place anchors,1,cast-in-place concrete pile,1,Cause-and-effect diagram,1,Chairs,1,Check sheets,1,Chemical Admixtures,1,Chute spillway,1,CIRIA,2,CIRIA Report 136,1,civil structures,1,Coal ash,1,collars,1,Collision Load,1,columns,3,columns and walls,1,Combination of combinations,1,combinations in Etabs,1,Company's Health,1,Compliant Towers platforms,1,compression test,1,compressive strength,1,concrete,4,concrete block buildings,1,CONCRETE IN HOT WEATHER,1,CONCRETE MOMENT FRAME,1,concrete pile,1,Concrete Rebound Hammer,1,Concrete Shrinkage,1,Concrete Slump Test,1,concrete walls,1,Construction and Stressing,1,construction drawings,1,Construction joints,1,Construction Manual,1,continuous external restraint,1,continuous slabs,1,contract planresponsibilities of QA/QC,1,Contracts Manager,1,cooling pipe system,1,Corner reinforcement,1,Cost Plus Award Fee,1,Cost-reimbursable,1,COUPLED SHEAR WALL,1,Couplers,1,couplers in columns,1,CP3,1,CRACK WIDTH,1,Creep,1,CURING,1,day to day work progress,1,Dead load and Self-weight,1,Deck,1,Deflection,1,Deflection discussion,1,Deflection in Prestressed,1,deformed bars,1,Demolition,1,Design Requirements,1,designing a tall building,1,Designs projects,1,detailed review,1,detailing and implementation,1,Development length,1,different codes in one structure,1,Differential elastic shortening,1,dimensions,1,DIRECT TENSION,1,Draftsman responsibilities,1,drawings and specifications,1,Drift Limitations,1,Drop beams,1,dust loads,1,dust on roof,1,Dynamic Pile Head,1,dynamic wind pressure,1,Early age Crackwidth,1,early strength cement,1,Earth pressure,1,Earthquake Design,1,earthquakes,1,EBT adhesive sealant,1,Elastic Shortening,1,electrical and manual,1,elevator requirement,1,Elevators,1,Encasement of pipes,1,end plate connection,1,Energy dissipater,1,engineering design,1,Environmental procedures,1,epoxy compound,1,Epoxy grout,1,equipment performance records,1,Error and warning free model,1,Errors in Etabs,1,establishment of construction,1,Estimating Flow Standard,1,Etabs,2,Etabs Design,1,ETABS to ROBOT,1,excavation,1,Excavation slopes,1,external concrete surfaces,1,Finishing of slip-forms,1,Fire,1,Firm Fixed Price,1,Fixed platforms,1,Fixed Price Incentive Fee,1,Fixed Price with Economic,1,Flexible Joints,1,Flexible pipes,1,floors,1,Flow charts,1,Fly ash,1,Foundation analysis,1,Foundations,1,framed openings,1,Free over fall spillway,1,FRP,1,FRP advantages,1,FRP disadvantages,1,FRP technology,1,full length bar,1,General Notes,1,Geophone sensor,1,Hammer Schmidt Type,1,HDP,1,Health and Safety procedures,1,High Early Strength Portland Cement,1,High quality additives,1,high rise / tower,1,highly effective,1,Histograms,1,hooked bars,1,Horizontal steel,1,Human Comfort,1,hydraulic,1,hydraulic jump,1,Hydraulic resistance,1,Hydro technical tunnels,1,IBC/ASCE,1,immediate reaction,1,importance of Plasticizers,1,Importing,1,IMS,1,Inspection Checklist,6,INSTRUMENT CALIBRATION,1,inter-story drift,1,interest payments,1,IT engineer responsibilities,1,Jack-up Platforms,1,Jacking Systems,1,Japanese code for escalators,1,Kicker,1,largest oil platform,1,lateral forces,1,lateral loads,1,LFD,1,lifting hooks,1,Load Factor Design,1,load resisting elements,1,load-bearing wall,1,Loading,1,Loads and Resistances,1,LRFD,1,Maintain contract database,1,Maintains close scrutiny,1,maintenance cost,1,Makes recommendations,1,manage,1,manufacturer,1,manufacturing process,1,Maximum allowable slopes,1,maximum deflection,1,maximum difference,1,maximum pressure,1,maximum reinforcement,1,maximum temperature,1,Mechanical couplers,1,Mechanical damage,1,membrane floors,1,Metal sleeves swaged,1,Method of dissipation,1,METHOD OF TESTING,1,Method statement,2,Mineral Admixtures,1,minimize the seepage,1,minimizing the cost,1,minimum eccentricity moment,1,Minimum reinforcement,1,mixing concrete,1,modelling in Etabs,1,Monitors performance,1,monthly invoice,1,Monthly Safety Report,1,multi-storey buildings,1,multistory buildings,1,Natural frequency,1,Necessity of tunnel lining,1,new structural systems,1,O&M,1,of concrete block buildings,1,office buildings,1,Office Tall Buildings,1,offshore platforms,1,oil platform,1,oil rigs,1,on beams from loaded slab can be achieved by defining the slab as a membrane,1,opening reinforcement,1,ordinary Portland cement,2,Other bars,1,Overlap,1,overlap locations,1,Oversee and review,1,palm trees weight,1,parallel threads,1,parapet,1,Perform data backups,1,Performance Bonds,1,Performs design drafting,1,physical properties,1,Pile Dynamic Test,1,Pile Head Preparation,1,Pile Integrity Testing,1,Pile Shaft Overbreak,1,Pindos,1,Pipe Classifications,1,PLACING,1,Placing boom,1,Plan and prioritize work,1,Planning Engineer,1,plant and equipment,1,Plant and Equipment Engineer,1,plaster walls,1,Platform types,1,pneumatic,1,Post-Tensioning Grouting,1,Pour strip,1,precast panel,1,Prepares monthly report,1,Pressure Ratings,1,Prestressed Concrete,1,prevent uplift,1,principal load resisting,1,procedure of fixing,1,Project Coordinator,1,Project manager assignment,1,project schedule,1,project's compliance,1,Provides technical expertise,1,provisional Sum,1,PT slabs,2,pump,1,PVC,1,QA,1,QA/QC Engineer,1,QC,1,Quality,1,raft foundations,1,Raft Slab Inspection Checklist,1,reaction as an engineer,1,rebound hammer,1,recommended tests,1,Recorded experience,1,Reinforced concrete columns,1,reinforcement,1,Reinforcement at openings,1,reinforcing bars,2,reinforcing-steel,1,Residential Tall Buildings,1,RESISTING SYSTEMS DAMAGE,1,Retaining Wall Inspection Checklist,1,Retaining walls,1,retarder,1,Review contract documents,1,review contracts,1,review expiring contracts,1,Reviews accidents,1,reviews contract drafts,1,Reviews shop drawings,1,Reviews the terms and conditions,1,Rice husk ash,1,rigid foundation,1,Rigid pipes,1,Road layers,1,Robot Millennium,1,Roles and Responsibilities,8,Roller bucket,1,Rough Order of Magnitude,1,round deformed bars,1,Rules of thumb,1,saddle beams,1,Safe 14,1,Safety Manager,1,sample letter,3,sand,1,SAP2000,1,Schmidt Hammer,1,Seismic Design Principle,1,SEISMIC RESISTING SYSTEMS,1,seismic zone factor,1,Semi-structural welding,1,Semi-submersible Platforms,1,Senior Architect,1,Senior Contracts Engineer,1,Sequential Loading,1,Set work program,1,Seven Basic Quality Tools,1,shallow foundation,1,Shell,1,Ship-board Rigs platforms,1,shortening of columns,1,Shrinkage,1,Shrinkage and Temperature,1,Side channel spillway,1,simply supported,1,Site engineer responsibilities,1,site facilities,1,SK Gosh,1,Ski-jump,1,slab assignment,1,slabs,2,Slabs Inspection Checklist,1,slings,1,slip forms,1,Slip-form,1,Slip-form construction,1,slip-forming,1,smooth finish,1,soffit slabs,1,Soil classification,1,Soil Sloping Systems,1,speed of erection,1,Spring Force,1,standard size bolts,1,Static load,1,Static load multiplier,1,steel beam,1,Steel Columns,1,steel quantity,1,steel stress,1,Stiffness,1,stiffness and resistance,1,stilling basin,1,Strap footing,1,Strength and Stability,1,Stress on soil in etabs,1,Stressing sequence,1,Striking formworks,2,Strip footing,1,Strong Column,1,structural construction process,1,structural design spreadsheet,1,Structural Details,1,structural engineers,1,Structural Provisions,1,structural purposes pipes,1,strukts spreadsheets,1,Subcontract Agreement,1,Super-plasticizers,2,surfactants,1,Tack welding,1,Tall Building,1,tall buildings,1,Tallest buildings,1,taper-cut threads,1,Tdr Test Accuracy,1,Technical Engineer,1,technical submittals,1,test hammer,1,Test on Piles,1,Test specimens,1,TESTING,1,Thermal Expansion,1,threaded rods with nuts,1,time for completion,1,Top bars,1,torsion-load test,1,Total Shortening,1,tower cranes,1,Tower cranes installation,1,Transform AUTOCAD drawings,1,trough spillway,1,Trump Tower,1,Tunnel,1,tunnel lining,1,type of concrete,1,Types of contracts,1,types of foundation,1,Types of shallow foundation,1,Types of spillways,1,Types of waterproofing,1,Ultra Ever Dry,1,Uniform loads Safe 14,1,uniform thickness,1,Uplift Force,1,uplift test lateral-load test,1,vertical load resisting,1,Voided Biaxial Slabs,1,wall openings,1,walls,2,Warning,1,Water curing,1,Weak Beam Concept,1,Wedge locking sleeves,1,weekly and monthly program,1,weekly and monthly report,1,Welding of reinforcement,1,Welding procedures,1,What teachers never taught us,1,wind and seismic,1,Wind loads,1,Wind simulation,1,WOOD SHEAR WALL,1,workability,2,Workshop repair,1,
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strukts: PROJECT CONTROL & RISK
PROJECT CONTROL & RISK
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